Shopify Seller Tools
Shopify Subscription Profit Calculator
Estimate subscription order profit, recurring revenue, churn pressure, acquisition cost, lifetime value, fulfillment cost, discounts, and monthly subscription profitability.
Subscription inputs
Enter your subscription price, shipment costs, payment fees, subscriber count, churn rate, acquisition cost, and retention assumptions.
Results
Estimated Shopify subscription profitability.
Profit per shipment
$11.18
Subscription price minus fulfillment, fees, support, and refund allowance.
Subscription margin
32.0%
Profit per shipment divided by subscription price.
Monthly recurring revenue
$4,200.00
Active subscribers multiplied by subscription price.
Monthly gross profit
$1,342.20
Profit per shipment multiplied by active subscribers.
Acquisition spend
$300.00
New subscribers multiplied by acquisition cost.
Profit after acquisition
$1,042.20
Monthly gross profit minus subscriber acquisition spend.
Expected cancellations
10
Estimated monthly cancellations based on churn rate.
Ending subscribers
135
Active subscribers after churn and new subscriber growth.
Net subscriber change
15
Subscriber growth after expected cancellations.
Customer LTV
$67.11
Estimated gross profit across average months retained.
LTV to CAC
5.59x
Lifetime gross profit divided by acquisition cost.
Break-even months
1
Months needed to recover acquisition cost.
What this means
Each subscription shipment is estimated to produce $11.18 in profit at a margin of 32.0%.
With 120 active subscribers, estimated monthly recurring revenue is $4,200.00, and profit after acquisition spend is $1,042.20.
Strong: This subscription appears strong under the entered margin, churn, and acquisition assumptions.
Churn scenario comparison
| Churn | Cancellations | Ending subs | Profit | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% | 0 | 145 | $1,321.82 | Strong |
| 5.0% | 6 | 139 | $1,254.72 | Strong |
| 8.0% | 10 | 135 | $1,214.45 | Strong |
| 10.0% | 12 | 133 | $1,187.60 | Strong |
| 15.0% | 18 | 127 | $1,120.50 | Strong |
| 20.0% | 24 | 121 | $1,053.38 | Strong |
| 25.0% | 30 | 115 | $986.27 | Strong |
How to use this Shopify Subscription Profit Calculator
Enter price
Add the recurring subscription price charged per shipment.
Add costs
Include product cost, shipping, packaging, fulfillment, fees, app cost, and support.
Add retention
Enter active subscribers, churn rate, new subscribers, and months retained.
Review LTV
Check margin, recurring profit, LTV, CAC, churn pressure, and break-even months.
Shopify subscription cost breakdown
Review the main costs included in each subscription shipment.
Subscription price
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$35.00
Product cost
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$11.00
Shipping cost
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$5.50
Packaging cost
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$1.25
Fulfillment cost
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$1.50
Payment fee
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$1.32
Subscription app cost
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$1.00
Support cost
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$0.75
Refund allowance
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$1.50
Profit per shipment
Included in the subscription profit estimate.
$11.18
Common Shopify subscription mistakes
Only checking first-month profit and ignoring churn.
Ignoring subscription app fees, support time, and replacement costs.
Spending too much to acquire subscribers without checking LTV to CAC.
Offering subscription discounts that make repeat shipments unprofitable.
Not tracking cancellation reasons, skipped shipments, and failed payments.
Assuming all subscribers stay for the same number of months.
Understanding your Shopify subscription result
Strong: The subscription appears to have strong margin, LTV, and acquisition economics.
Healthy: The subscription appears profitable, but churn and CAC should be monitored.
Watch: Profit may be sensitive to churn, acquisition cost, shipping, discounts, or support burden.
Losing: The subscription is estimated to lose money under the entered assumptions.
What Shopify sellers should include
Subscription price and shipment frequency.
Product cost, shipping, packaging, fulfillment, and payment fees.
Subscription app cost, support cost, and refund allowance.
Active subscribers, churn rate, and new subscriber growth.
Customer acquisition cost and average months retained.
Lifetime value and break-even months before scaling ads.
Ways to improve Shopify subscription profit
Reduce churn
Improve product quality, delivery consistency, onboarding, reminders, and cancellation saves.
Raise LTV
Use longer retention, better bundles, loyalty perks, and upsells to increase lifetime profit.
Lower CAC
Improve organic traffic, email capture, referral offers, and ad targeting before scaling.
Protect margin
Watch shipping costs, discounts, support tickets, refunds, app fees, and failed payments.